No matter what formula you use for analyzing a commercial property and deciding if it makes a solid investment, there is no “E” in the equation. “E” stands for emotion.
When I present my bootcamps on investing in apartment houses, there are always a couple of perplexed investors who come with stories about getting into deals that aren’t working out as they expected. For all practical purposes they’re taking a bath on the property and they want me to tell them how I’d fix it.
I’m glad they came to me for help. But the truth is, I never would have done the deal in the first place.
Yet invariably, they argue their rationale was solid. They remain convinced the square peg will fit into the round hole as long as they keep hammering away at it. What drives this wishful and irrational thinking? Emotion.
So I ask what “attracted” them to the property in the first place and I hear things like it was a trophy property and/or that other investors were also interested in it. Well, there isn’t a mathematical formula for “trophy,” so there’s your first clue that emotion has crept into their rationale. You don’t want a property because other investors want it. You want the property because the numbers work.
When I say this, I may hear that the “pro forma” numbers were solid. I’m quick to point out that pro forma numbers are fictitious. That’s like buying a car and finding out later that the 35 miles-per-gallon quoted by the seller was based on your putting in a different engine once you bought the car.
A deal must be analyzed with actual current numbers only. Never take numbers based on a historically ideal scenario where the property is 100% occupied, as compared to the real 70% occupancy that it actually has today.
If the current numbers don’t indicate a workable deal, guess what that means: They don’t add up. You need to scrap the deal.
Making up for lost time is how you lose money
New investors often feel that they’re behind the eight ball; that they should have invested long ago and need to make up for lost time. They take the plunge now even though the tide has gone out. This is emotion-driven thinking and needs to be kept in check. Wait for the tide to return. Rest assured that real estate is a tremendous wealth-building vehicle and you can build wealth quickly — as long as you go by the real numbers and not your emotions.
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